December 30th, 2007 by Beat Casinos, How To Beat The Casinos, www.howtobeatthecasinos.com

I’m often emailed by sports bettors, who are looking for a “better deal”. “Where should we go Dave for the best odds?”, “Who do you recommend as a reputable sportsbook?” are typical questions. I’ve long been against the typical UK bookmakers (William Hill, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Stanleys, Coral, etc) and their tight odds on games. Before the Internet was here, I’d gladly go down to the local bookies to place my bets on football matches and the like – but once betting exchanges started appearing online, I’ve never felt the need to bet anywhere else!

Here’s a live example (today, right now) from various bookies / betting exchanges, showing current odds for a football match between Fulham and Chelsea to happen on Tuesday 1 January, 2008 at 12.45pm UK time:

Paddy Power:
Chelsea Win – 1/2 (1GBP returns 1.50) DRAW – 11/4 (1GBP returns 3.75) Fulham Win – 11/2 (1GBP returns 6.50)

Ladbrokes:
Chelsea Win – 1/2 (1GBP returns 1.50) DRAW – 5/2 (1GBP returns 3.50) Fulham Win – 5/1 (1GBP returns 6.00)

Coral:
Chelsea Win – 4/9 (1GBP returns 1.44) DRAW – 13/5 (1GBP returns 3.60) Fulham Win – 11/2 (1GBP returns 6.50)

Betfair:
Chelsea Win – 1.59 (1GBP returns 1.59) DRAW – 4.2 (1GBP returns 4.20) Fulham Win – 7 (1GBP returns 7.00)

Those of you with an eye for detail will notice that one site was CONSISTENTLY above all others with the odds offered – Betfair. Why is this? Betfair are not traditional bookmakers – they are a person-to-person betting exchange. You’re betting against other people, with Betfair acting as intermediaries. Betfair take a small commission on the winnings portion of all WINNING BETS – but generally no higher than 5%. Even allowing for that, their odds are HIGHER than all of the other bookies!

This is why I’m happy to recommend Betfair – they’re reputable, fast paying, UK licensed, and above all they offer GREAT VALUE. Join their excellent casino today (and get free match play cash AND the Dec 2007 / Jan 2008 BONUS CASH from ME directly – see our “join the casinos” promotion at the base of every blog page). Once you’re a Betfair casino member, that same account can be used to place sports bets.

As usual, let me know how you get on – I naturally wish you the very best of luck!

December 30th, 2007 by Beat Casinos, How To Beat The Casinos, www.howtobeatthecasinos.com

I’d just like to take this opportunity to wish all readers of the Beat The Casinos blog a very happy new year! May this upcoming year bring you all the happiness, luck, and love in your life that you wish for.

Thanks as always for visiting – and stay lucky!

December 30th, 2007 by Beat Casinos, How To Beat The Casinos, www.howtobeatthecasinos.com

The following bets should be avoided in ANY casino. These bets hold the highest “hold” or “house edge” for the casino – in other words, these are the bets which in the long term will LOSE you the most money.

1. KENO – this game has a house edge of around 25 percent – that’s HUGE!

2. Progressive Slot Machines (all machines which contribute towards a combined “progressive” total): No matter what denomination the machine is set to, the house edge is typically 12 to 17 percent. It has to be high in order to pay for those huge progressive jackpots! Typical non-progressive slot machines pay back between 88 and 96% (so a 4 to 12 percent range) – which isn’t a whole lot better, but is still a better return than when playing on progressive jackpot machines.

3. TIE bet on Baccarat – this bet has a house edge of 14.4%. (Note that the banker and player bets are fine to play – but avoid the TIE bet always).

4. Various CRAPS Bets: ANY SEVEN (house edge is 16.67%); 2 AND 12 (house edge is 13.89%); WORLD (2,3,7,11,12) – house edge is 13.33%; THE HORN (house edge is 12.5%); 3 AND 11; HARD 4 and HARD 10; ANY CRAPS (house edge on all is 11.11%); HARD 6 and HARD 8 (house edge is 9.09%).

5. 5 cent / pence or lower slot machines: Typically, the lower the slot machine denomination played, the lower the return. A typical 5 cent / pence machine has a house edge of 10% to 12%.

Avoiding these bet types will help you to have a longer / more profitable playing experience.

December 30th, 2007 by Beat Casinos, How To Beat The Casinos, www.howtobeatthecasinos.com

In response to popular demand, you can now receive updates (once a day, when articles are posted) from Beat The Casinos, totally free, via email. Maybe you’ve wanted to be kept in touch but haven’t made use of our RSS Feed? Now there’s no need – simply Subscribe (FREE) by Email, and we’ll send you any newly posted articles on the day they are posted (no more than one email sent in any day – and when articles are not posted on a day, you won’t receive an email).

Every email you receive will give you the opportunity to unsubscribe. Our email service is managed by Feedburner (who also manage our RSS subscriptions). Feedburner is a known and trusted entity, and owned by Google!

You can subscribe to us at any time using the “Subscribe (FREE) by Email” link found near the top right of all pages on the blog (directly under the “Beat the Casinos RSS Feed” link).

December 28th, 2007 by Beat Casinos, How To Beat The Casinos, www.howtobeatthecasinos.com

There are various websites on the Internet that claim to sell you Baccarat Systems that are “guaranteed to make you rich”, “guaranteed to win” etc. Like the various roulette systems I debunked in my earlier article Roulette Systems to avoid, these Baccarat systems should probably be avoided. Well, that’s just my personal view – ultimately you need to make your own choices. If you want to spend a few hundred dollars on some potentially (in my eyes) “worthless” information, why not just give it to charity?

Here are examples of just some of the many Baccarat system sellers trying to take your money:
BaccaratSystem.net – got a spare $195 to spend on a system that supposes you will win 85% of all shoes? What happens to the other 15%? I’m guessing you’ll LOSE those… Sounds like a TIE bet strategy to me (the odds of that bet are about 14.4% against the player).

Baccarat-System.com – got either $199 or $299 to purchase some Baccarat software that tells you when to bet? Apparently you only bet about 70% of hands. That’s fine IF your casino / online casino allows that – not all do. And apparently, for this investment of cash, you’ll get a system where you win 2 out of every 3 shoes. So what happens on that third shoe I wonder?

The Infallible Baccarat System – seems like a very strong claim to me… but can it be proven? This system costs $1000 USD for email delivery – on that basis, it better be infallible! I could buy a lot of blackjack / baccarat playing time with that cash!

These sites are of course just the tip of the iceberg – Google reports 662,000 entries when I type the words “Baccarat system” in. That’s an awful lot of sites attempting to sell (in my eyes) false hopes of huge ongoing consistent wins to users.

Why do I debunk these systems as likely to fail? Simply, I’m a maths man, an odds man. When I play ANY casino game, I play it only when I’ve fully researched it, fully understood it, and fully calculated the long term expectation for or against me. Then I look for ways to beat it legally, through players club points, casino promotions, casino bonus cash online, free drinks, etc. By doing so, I give myself the very best chance to win at any game I play. And that seems to work for me.

But because I am an odds man, I also look at other respected internet sites like “The Wizard of Odds” that have run complex mathematical formula to prove or disprove some methods of play / systems. Their article on Card Counting in Baccarat (which these systems most probably consider as part of their methodologies) proves (to me) rather conclusively that card counting in Baccarat doesn’t work. You can find a link to that article by searching for it on their website.

So, as usual, you need to make your own mind up about what works for you. My role is simply to provide the information to you, along with my own perspective / commentary built up over 15 years of playing. It’s a personal viewpoint. Do what you will!

In the meantime, should you wish to play Baccarat, check out Betfair. If you play “Zero Baccarat” you’ll find the best baccarat odds online, as they’ve reduced the banker bet win commission from the normal 5% to 2.75%. In real terms that means that a long term banker edge that’s about 1.04% elsewhere will work out to only around 0.5% here. That’s a unique advantage, and it’s just one of the many reasons I’m happy to recommend Betfair to you. Don’t forget the £50 match play bonus for new customers, and also don’t forget my own beatthecasinos Christmas 2007 / Jan 2008 special where you can get an extra £10 / $20 USD from ME, just for joining via the links on this blog. (See top of page or bottom of page for complete details).

Stay lucky, and as usual let me know if you have any questions at davewestlondon@yahoo.co.uk.