You’ve heard it. You’ve maybe said it. “It’s been red five times in a row—black’s due.” Or: “That slot hasn’t hit all night… it’s bound to pay soon.” Sounds logical, right?

It’s not. It’s the Gambler’s Fallacy—and it’s one of the fastest ways to drain your bankroll.

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🧠 What Is the Gambler’s Fallacy?

It’s the belief that past outcomes affect future ones in a random system.

In other words: people think if something hasn’t happened lately, it’s more likely to happen next. But with true randomness?

Each spin, each roll, each deal is completely independent.

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🎰 Real-World Example

Let’s say you’re playing roulette.
The last six spins have landed on red.

You think: Black’s overdue. It has to hit soon.

Wrong.
The odds of red or black remain the same on every spin: about 47.4% each (after factoring in green zeroes).

The wheel doesn’t know its history. It doesn’t care. It’s not “balancing things out.”

It’s just doing what it does—randomly.

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💥 Why This Fallacy Hurts Your Game

• You start increasing bets to chase what you think is “due.”
• You ignore your strategy and play emotionally.
• You stay longer than planned, hoping to catch a swing that might never come.

And before you know it, the only thing that’s changed is your wallet—it’s emptier.

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✅ How to Beat the Fallacy

1. Understand independence.
Slots, roulette, keno—every result is standalone. There’s no memory in the machine.

2. Stick to your plan, not patterns.
Don’t base decisions on streaks or what “feels” due. Base them on your bankroll and your limits.

3. Take breaks to reset your brain.
Fallacy thinking creeps in when you’re tired, emotional, or chasing losses.

4. Log your sessions.
Seeing your own history helps you recognise patterns in your behaviour, not the games.

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Gambling’s already hard enough. Don’t make it harder by betting on imaginary momentum.

Smart players understand that random is random—and they work with that knowledge, not against it.

Dave the Gambler says:
The machine isn’t trying to get you. It just doesn’t care about your feelings. So you better care about your strategy.